Michael Schmid:

Quantitative Analyst | Predictive Modeling & Trading Strategies

Explore my portfolio of data-driven analysis and insights.

Project: The 4th Industrial Revolution, Distributed-Ledger Technology (Digital Assets), The Internet of Value

The 4th Industrial Revolution: Navigating the Next Industrial Revolution
(Power Point Presentation, 12/2020, scope: 128 pages, 3.15 GB)

The presentation presents a compelling analysis of global transformation, driven by technological disruption and financial restructuring. It highlights the dawn of a new industrial revolution, shaped by the convergence of:

  • 5G-powered communications for hyper-connectivity,

  • Renewable energy networks evolving into smart grids,

  • Autonomous mobility systems, integrated with Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) and the Internet of Things (IoT).

This interconnected infrastructure fuels a radical new sharing economy, reshaping business models and value creation - a crucial factor for financial analysts evaluating emerging markets and investments.

Financial Disruption and Systemic Reset

The report underscores key financial pressures:

  • Monetary expansion (e.g., U.S. M2 money supply surge),

  • Zombified economies surviving on unsustainable credit,

  • Liquidity crises like the 2019 REPO market breakdown,

  • Controlled inflation - reducing debt while eroding purchasing power.

It introduces the "Great Reset" (WEF), predicting a transition from the U.S. dollar’s dominance to a basket of digital currencies, potentially backed by commodities like gold - a pivotal insight for analysts tracking currency shifts and alternative assets.

Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) in Finance

The document highlights Ripple (XRP) and Interledger Protocol (ILP) as examples of how DLT supports faster, cheaper cross-border transactions, disrupting traditional banking infrastructure - an essential consideration when evaluating fintech innovations.

Generational Market Forces

The Millennial generation, with increasing economic influence and a strong preference for cryptocurrencies, is reshaping financial markets. Their distrust of traditional banks and openness to decentralized finance (DeFi) signals a shift in future consumer and investment behavior.

The Future: A Level Playing Field

The analysis concludes with a vision of a "Level Playing Field" - a decentralized, global financial system, potentially anchored by a digital currency basket (eSDR). This model, powered by blockchain technology and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), promotes greater financial equity - an essential trend for financial analysts to monitor.

Distributed-Ledger Technology (Digital Assets): Powering the Digital Economy
(Power Point Presentation, 12/2020, scope: 66 pages, 487 MB)
The Internet of Value - ILP, Ripple, XRP: Reinventing Global Payments
(Power Point Presentation, 12/2020, scope: 89 pages, 1.37 GB)

This final part explores the evolution of global payments through Interledger Protocol (ILP), Ripple, and XRP, positioning them as cornerstones of the emerging Internet of Value (IoV) - where money moves as seamlessly as data.

Breaking Down the Problem: Outdated Financial Infrastructure

The document highlights how today’s financial system, built on 40-year-old technology, resembles an inefficient, complex machine. Cross-border payments remain slow, expensive, and unreliable - a significant barrier in an increasingly interconnected world.

The Shift: From Data to Value

It introduces the Internet of Value - a paradigm shift where financial transactions flow globally, quickly, and at low cost. This layer transforms the internet from a network of data to one of value, enabling faster, cheaper, and more accessible financial exchanges.

Ripple and ILP: Powering the Next Generation of Payments

Ripple emerges as a game-changer, designed to replace legacy systems like SWIFT with a faster, more energy-efficient alternative. Unlike traditional blockchains relying on energy-intensive mining, Ripple uses a consensus mechanism that confirms transactions within seconds, at minimal cost - an essential insight for financial analysts tracking payment infrastructure innovations.

ILP serves as the backbone, enabling interoperability - the seamless transfer of value across different ledgers, currencies, and digital assets. This interoperability fosters "A Level Playing Field", breaking down financial silos and creating a universal value exchange system.

XRP: A Digital Asset for Real-World Utility

XRP is presented as more than a cryptocurrency - it’s a scalable, reliable, decentralized asset designed to solve global payment challenges. Its speed, low cost, and liquidity position it as a bridge currency, facilitating instant cross-border transactions without counterparty risk.

The Future: Tokenized Assets and Digital Liquidity

The document envisions a world where all assets - from real estate and stocks to luxury goods - are tokenized, creating a digital economy where value moves as fluidly as information. ILP, Ripple, and XRP are positioned as the infrastructure supporting this transformation, potentially redefining global finance.

This continutation presentation offers a deep dive into Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) and its pivotal role in reshaping the global economy. It positions DLT as the foundation of a decentralized, tokenized future, enabling secure, peer-to-peer transactions without intermediaries - a vital insight for finance professionals tracking digital finance evolution.

Key Concepts: The Internet of Everything (IoE)

The document outlines how DLT supports the transition from today’s Internet of Data (IoD) and Internet of Things (IoT) to the Internet of Value (IoV) - merging into the Internet of Everything (IoE). This evolution underpins digital assets, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and tokenized investments, redefining asset ownership and market accessibility.

DLT’s Core Functions

DLT is presented as a trust infrastructure, democratizing value exchange globally - akin to how the printing press and the internet democratized information. It facilitates:

  • Decentralized, secure record-keeping, ensuring transparency without intermediaries,

  • Cryptographic data encryption, safeguarding transactions,

  • Peer-to-peer data transmission, enhancing speed and reducing costs.

For finance analysts, this signals a seismic shift in how markets operate, with implications for cross-border payments, asset tokenization, and digital identity solutions.

Bitcoin and Blockchain: Pioneers of Decentralization

The report explores Bitcoin’s origins - not merely as a currency but as a proof of concept for secure, decentralized value transfer. It acknowledges Bitcoin’s limitations (energy consumption, scalability) but underscores its role in inspiring more efficient blockchain alternatives.

The Rise of Tokenization

One of the document’s most impactful insights is the potential for tokenizing physical assets - transforming anything from real estate to luxury cars into fractional, tradeable digital assets. This opens new investment pathways, democratizing asset classes traditionally reserved for high-net-worth individuals.

The Future: Digital Assets and Financial Transformation

The summary concludes by likening today’s DLT revolution to the early internet era - misunderstood yet transformative. It argues that while most digital assets may fade, the surviving 10% will reshape global finance. For analysts, this insight is crucial for identifying enduring innovations amidst market volatility.

Project: Cycles in Financial Markets - Identifying Patterns for Strategic Investment

Core Subjects and Focus Areas

Cycle Analysis Showcase

The core idea behind cyclical (harmonic) analysis proposes that most processes may be described as superposition of different harmonic functions (i.e. sinus waves with different periods, amplitudes, phases).

(Any asset/market can be analyzed)

(Tradingview as well as software with Neural Networks, Seasonality and other methods were used)

Current Cycle projection in yellow for NASDAQ

Projected fundamentally high-likelihood event marked by dashed line with the red arrow, XRP / USD, November 2024

Technical Cycle projection in yellow, BTC / USD, March - October 2024

A.I. (LLM) Tools: Work in Progress

Fully local working chatbot with personal trained data based on one of my strategies

(LMStudio (Model: "llama-3.2-3b") with AnythingLLM

With above analysis correlated current Cycle projection in red for DJI

Markets are a reflection of universal mathematical and energetic principles.

Throughout my research and professional exploration, I've developed a unique perspective on financial markets that transcends traditional economic thinking. My approach integrates insights from physics, mathematics, astronomy, and theoretical science to understand market movements as part of a more complex, interconnected system.

Traditional financial theories often view market behavior as random and unpredictable. My work challenges this assumption, proposing that markets operate according to precise universal laws similar to those governing astronomical and physical systems. By examining markets through a multidimensional lens, I've uncovered fascinating patterns that reveal a deeper order beneath apparent chaos.

My research is grounded in the concept that all phenomena - including financial markets - are governed by vibrational energy and mathematical principles. Time, I've found, is not purely linear but cyclical, with markets following predictable patterns similar to astronomical and generational cycles. This perspective allows for a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics that goes beyond surface-level analysis.

I view financial markets as more than just economic instruments. They are:

  • Energetic phenomena

  • Reflections of mass human psychology

  • Complex systems with inherent mathematical structures

By studying these systems through interdisciplinary research, I've developed innovative approaches to understanding market behavior. My work draws connections between seemingly unrelated domains - linking mathematical ratios, and market movements in ways that challenge conventional economic thinking.

My research sits at the intersection of multiple scientific disciplines, suggesting that markets are part of a larger, interconnected universal system. This approach goes beyond traditional economic models, integrating insights from:

  • Theoretical physics

  • Astronomical cycle studies

  • Psychological research

  • Advanced mathematical modeling

The most exciting aspect of this research is its potential for predictive modeling. By understanding the deeper principles governing market movements, we can develop more sophisticated forecasting techniques. These methods look beyond historical data, instead examining the fundamental energetic and mathematical principles that underlie market behavior.

Research Volume

I have conducted intense comprehensive research over the past seven years, accumulating and organizing over a terabyte of data. This dataset includes files from physical books, scientific data/websites, wide-ranging videos, excel lists, python scripts, forums, social media platforms, and other resources. While some of this information has been visualized in data representations, a significant portion remains as raw files sorted in folder structures that document the breadth of my research efforts across diverse domains.

My innate curiosity, open-minded approach, and freedom from traditional academic constraints have allowed me to explore diverse methodologies, yielding comprehensive, unbiased, and holistic insights while uncovering unexpected connections across various fields.

My Top 5 CliftonStrengths® Results

  1. My Intellect strength drives my passion for mathematical modeling and allows me to quickly grasp complex concepts, enabling me to develop sophisticated predictive models and algorithms for automated trading software.

  2. Leveraging my Future Orientation, I excel at anticipating market trends and potential outcomes, which is crucial for designing and implementing innovative trading strategies that stay ahead of the curve.

  3. My Strategy strength enables me to approach projects with a systematic and analytical mindset, allowing me to efficiently develop and optimize trading algorithms while considering multiple scenarios and potential impacts.

  4. With Cautiousness as one of my top strengths, I meticulously evaluate risks and ensure thorough testing of new strategies, contributing to robust risk management practices essential in the volatile digital asset market.

  5. My Focus strength allows me to maintain sustained attention on long-term projects, ensuring that I can dedicate the necessary time and effort to refine and perfect trading strategies, even when they span several months.

Analytical Skills Highlighted

Michael provided me with comprehensive advice on strategic crypto investments, offering in-depth market analyses. Based on his expertise and insights, I invested 10´000 CHF in digital assets. Due to favorable market developments and optimal timing, I have achieved a return of over 220%. His informed guidance was instrumental in this financial success.

F. Mertesdorf, Key Account Manager

★★★★★

★★★★★

Michael's insights into cryptocurrency and financial markets are unparalleled. His analysis is thorough and data-driven, making complex concepts easy to understand. Highly recommend!

D. Halter, Recruiting Partner